Looking at the chip chart of RIVER, the answer has actually been there all along. After falling from the top at 23.877, the 13 to 15 range is now filled with trapped funds, and this kind of short-term trapped position cannot be resolved.

The rebound from the low at 11.503 seems formidable, but a closer look at the trading structure reveals an awkward situation—it's all retail investors' bottom-fishing funds hard absorbing the sell-off, and the major buy orders have never appeared. Are those green bars actively buying? They are mostly small orders pieced together to create a false illusion.

What's more heartbreaking is on the contract side—although the open interest is still rising, the proportion of large traders' short positions has never truly decreased. This disconnect between increasing open interest and the long-short structure simply means: the big players have no intention of reversing to go long; they are just continuing to accumulate short positions during the rebound.

From a technical perspective, it also looks weak. The 15-minute MACD just formed a golden cross but started to weaken in volume, a typical sign of a weak rebound; the 4-hour MACD is still stuck in a death cross zone; on larger timeframes, there are no signs of a trend reversal.

The future movement is most likely to be a grinding within the narrow 13 to 14 range. Retail investors' bottom-fishing funds can temporarily support the price, but once the key support at 13 is broken through by volume, it will directly retest the previous low at 11.5. If it encounters resistance at 15, don’t expect much—selling pressure from trapped positions will quickly push it back down. Ultimately, without institutional funds to support, any rally is just a trap for the bulls.