Bitcoin has evolved beyond crypto cycles—it's now trading as a macro asset tied to global monetary conditions.

Forget the traditional 4-year halving narrative. What actually moves the needle? Fed policy and global liquidity flows. When central banks tighten, money dries up everywhere. When they pivot, risk assets rip.

Here's the critical level: $55k acts as the floor. Hold that support, and we're staring down a trajectory toward $200k and beyond. Break below it during a recession? That's when the narrative flips. But so far, each macro shock has been met with policy intervention—and that's bullish for assets denominated in depreciating fiat.

The playbook is clear: watch the Fed more closely than you watch the chain data.