Fidelity Director questions the four-year cycle theory: Bitcoin's bear market is not over, $65,000 may become the life and death line

Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer recently expressed a rather sobering view: don’t be fooled by the notion that the “four-year cycle has ended, and the bear market is over.” During a time of widespread market optimism, this seasoned analyst offered a more cautious assessment — Bitcoin’s bottom is not as invulnerable as many imagine. Currently, BTC is fluctuating around $91,110, still a considerable distance from the key support level he mentioned. This perspective warrants serious consideration.

Challenging Market Consensus

The cycle theory is being questioned

Timmer admits that the impact of the halving cycle on Bitcoin is weakening, and he agrees with that point. But he strongly opposes the conclusion that “bear markets no longer occur.” This distinction is important — weakening does not mean disappearing; market structures are changing, but risks have not been entirely eliminated.

His core judgment is: Bitcoin’s current trajectory is more akin to the S-curve of the internet than the widely cited power-law curve of the past. What does this mean? Simply put, the growth pattern is changing; historical laws may no longer apply fully, but that doesn’t mean the upward channel will persist indefinitely.

The importance of key price levels

According to Timmer’s analysis, there are two support levels worth paying attention to:

The $65,000 level is significant because it represents the previous high. In Timmer’s view, if Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase within the next year, the power-law trend line might move closer to $65,000, potentially becoming a “life-and-death” line. In other words, this is a line that must be defended.

Correspondence with current market conditions

Interestingly, Timmer’s cautious stance contrasts sharply with recent ETF capital flows. According to the latest data, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $398 million on January 9, with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing a net outflow of $193.3 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC a net outflow of $120.5 million.

This reflects a phenomenon: institutional funds chase gains and sell on dips. When BTC surges, large amounts of capital flood in; when prices retreat, these funds quickly withdraw. This behavior pattern confirms market uncertainty — even large institutions frequently adjust their positions, indicating that confidence in the future market is not as firm as it appears.

Reasonable expectations for the future

Timmer’s view does not necessarily mean Bitcoin will drop to $65,000 or lower, but rather that this level serves as a critical risk control point. If Bitcoin indeed enters a correction cycle at some point in the future, this line becomes crucial.

From the current $91,110, there is still nearly 40% space to reach $65,000, but in the volatile crypto market, this distance might be closer than expected. Especially considering the instability of institutional funds — they flood in during good market sentiment and withdraw during downturns — this risk is very real.

Summary

Timmer’s core points can be summarized as follows: First, don’t be fooled by the “cycle is dead” narrative; the possibility of a bear market still exists. Second, $65,000 is a support level to watch closely — a key defensive position. Third, the current ETF capital fluctuations reflect institutional caution, contrasting with the market’s overly optimistic sentiment.

For holders, this isn’t a reason to panic, but a reminder to stay aware of risks. Markets have never only gone up; recognizing this is essential to survive longer in the market.