Bitcoin hits US$ 90K as miner pressure reduces hash rate; Elon Musk and the future of cryptocurrencies

The week began with Bitcoin facing a complex scenario: the price fluctuates near US$ 87,700, far from the psychological resistance of US$ 90,000 that continues to dominate the order book. The reduction in hash rate – a 4% decline according to VanEck’s report, the sharpest since mid-2024 – reveals a much more concerning fundamental backdrop than daily price fluctuations.

Miner capitulation and the energy challenge

The most disruptive movement came from Xinjiang. Approximately 400,000 mining machines were shut down in just 24 hours, removing 1.3 GW of productive capacity from the network. The reason: reallocating energy to artificial intelligence data centers, a sector currently more profitable than Bitcoin mining.

This scenario illustrates an uncomfortable reality for the crypto sector: the competition for physical resources (energy) and the economic viability of the activity in different regions. Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush from Bloomberg Intelligence estimate that up to 10% of the global hash rate could be permanently lost in this cycle.

For operators using the Bitmain S19 XP model, the situation has become more severe. The break-even electricity cost dropped from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in a year – a 36% retracement. Less efficient machines simply cannot withstand this margin compression.

The 30-day realized volatility exceeded 45%, a level not recorded since April 2025. The combination of extreme oscillation and drops in revenue per exahash forces marginal operators to shut down equipment to avoid immediate operational losses. VanEck highlights that this process of capitulation – paradoxical as it may seem – tends to ease the structural selling pressure in the medium term by eliminating less resilient participants.

Technical dynamics and the US$ 90,000 deadlock

On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin remains below the 200-period simple and exponential moving averages, which act as dynamic resistance. Each attempt to break above US$ 90,000 is accompanied by explosive selling volume, reinforcing defensive behavior.

Short positions in Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana total around US$ 250 million according to recent data. Although many analysts interpret this as protection against further corrections – and not necessarily aggressive directional bets – the impact is amplified in a low-liquidity environment.

Order book depth has decreased significantly. With many operators reducing exposure before year-end to preserve gains, the market has become more sensitive to smaller operations, amplifying short-term volatility.

Divergences and constructive signals

Despite weakness in the spot price, indicators are beginning to show a weakening of selling pressure. On the three-day chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) forms progressively higher lows while the price makes lower lows – a classic bullish divergence setup.

Historically, divergences of this type in previous cycles preceded significant movements. They do not function as isolated triggers but indicate technical compression and increased likelihood of reversal if confirmation factors emerge.

The macroeconomic context and capital flow

One phenomenon draws attention: while gold and silver reach new all-time highs amid macroeconomic uncertainties, Bitcoin does not follow the same defensive capital flow. The BTC/XAU pair indicates a relative loss of value for the crypto asset, suggesting possible additional technical compression.

QCP Capital emphasizes that liquidity is likely to remain reduced during the Christmas week, which can amplify both continuation moves and abrupt reactions to new economic data.

Government support and the future of mining

Despite structural difficulties, VanEck estimates that at least 13 countries participate in Bitcoin mining with some degree of state support, aiming for energy or monetary sovereignty. This reorganization tends to concentrate operations among actors with access to cheaper energy and superior infrastructure, raising the sector’s entry barrier.

Public discussions about cryptocurrencies and their uses have gained traction, with figures like Elon Musk occasionally commenting on the role of cryptocurrencies in the digital economy. These narratives help shape institutional perception of the crypto ecosystem in the long term.

What to expect

Historically, drops in hash rate have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. During periods of hash rate contraction over 90-day windows, the average return in six months reached 72%, suggesting that miner capitulation often coincides with exhaustion of selling pressure.

The market now awaits a more consistent influx of buying capital. The recovery of the 200-period moving averages is considered a necessary condition for the reestablishment of a solid bullish structure. Until then, Bitcoin remains in lateral consolidation, testing lower zones in search of sufficient demand to absorb the open supply.