Gold Approaching Critical Levels: Next Week's Outlook and Detailed Analysis of Yellow Metal Prices

Weak Economic Environment Reassesses Federal Reserve Expectations

Financial markets are experiencing a critical turning point after a series of disappointing economic data releases in the United States. The US Consumer Confidence Index dropped significantly to 50.3 points in November 2025, marking its lowest level in over three and a half years. Concurrently, private employment data from ADP showed a modest increase of only 42,000 jobs in October, indicating a clear slowdown in the labor market.

This deterioration in economic indicators has prompted market participants to reevaluate their outlook on monetary policy in the coming months. The focus has shifted from the possibility of maintaining high interest rates to expecting an imminent rate cut, especially after the resolution of the political crisis that had obscured the true economic outlook.

Rising Odds of December Rate Cut Support Gold’s Bullish Wave

According to CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting has risen to approximately 64%. More importantly, some Federal Reserve officials, including Stephen Miran, have indicated that a deeper cut of up to 50 basis points may be necessary due to declining inflation pressures and rising unemployment rates.

These developments not only impact gold but also shape the overall safe-haven asset trajectory. When real interest rates decline, the returns on bonds and fixed deposits decrease, making precious metals more attractive as a means of preserving real value. Additionally, accommodative policies tend to weaken the US dollar, boosting demand for dollar-priced gold.

US Government Shutdown Removes Political Uncertainty but Leaves Economic Equation Unchanged

After weeks of deadlock, the US Senate approved a funding agreement that reopened federal institutions and government agencies. This move eased the uncertainty hanging over markets, removing one of the biggest sources of political concern.

However, the actual impact of the government reopening on gold price dynamics is very limited. The true foundation of gold’s strength lies not in resolving the political crisis but in the economic data revealed afterward. Declining employment and consumer confidence point to an economic slowdown path, a historically supportive environment for gold prices.

Price Scenario Analysis: Critical Technical Levels

Gold prices are currently moving within a medium-term upward range, trading around $4,133 per ounce after a strong rebound from the support zone at $3,928, which served as a crucial defense line in recent weeks.

Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 75 points, indicating an overbought condition that could lead to limited corrective movements. However, the moving average of the indicator remains relatively low, confirming the continuation of the underlying bullish momentum despite some short-term bearish pressures.

A positive divergence between price movement and RSI has been observed, with the indicator forming rising lows while prices moved sideways, a strong traditional signal of ongoing buying momentum and underlying strength.

Key Levels to Watch

Support Lines:

• $4,046: Near-term and effective support level. Holding above it reinforces the short-term bullish outlook.
• $3,928: Pivot support level that previously halted declines successfully. Breaking below could lead to a deeper correction.
• $3,470: Long-term strategic support. Reaching this level indicates a fundamental shift in trend.

Resistance Levels:

• $4,145: Immediate resistance requiring a clear breakout with a strong close.
• $4,200: Pivot barrier that could open the way toward $4,300 if decisively broken.
• $4,381: Historically significant previous high. Surpassing it indicates a strong bullish push.
• $4,500: Potential long-term target if positive momentum persists.

Next Week’s Outlook: Possible Scenarios

Gold is expected to continue testing resistance levels at $4,145–$4,200 in the coming days. In an optimistic scenario, a clear breakout above $4,200 could trigger a strong buying wave targeting $4,300 in the first week of the forecast period.

However, a limited technical correction may occur before further gains, especially given current overbought conditions. Any corrective dip at this stage is likely to find strong support at $4,046, with failure to hold this support possibly pushing prices toward $3,928.

The less probable alternative scenario involves unexpectedly positive US economic data that could reduce rate cut expectations, potentially pushing gold back toward lower support levels. However, current indicators suggest this is very unlikely in the upcoming week.

JPMorgan Long-Term Outlook: Expectation of Exceeding $5,000 in 2026

In recent strategic reports, JPMorgan classified gold among the top assets expected to perform exceptionally in 2026. The study anticipates surpassing $5,000 per ounce based on deep structural factors beyond short-term market fluctuations.

This forecast is supported by ongoing increases in central bank purchases, especially from emerging economies seeking to diversify reserves away from the US dollar. With rising geopolitical tensions and global financial uncertainty, gold is becoming a key strategic component in central bank portfolios rather than just a trading tool.

Silver, Platinum, and Palladium: Synchronized Rises but with Different Rates

The rally is not limited to gold alone. Silver prices reached around $50.9 per ounce, benefiting from increased safe-haven demand, though its strong link to industrial demand may limit its rise compared to gold.

Platinum traded around $1,584 per ounce, supported by improved outlooks for industrial and automotive demand, while palladium continued its ascent toward $1,435 per ounce, benefiting from improved global supply chains.

Overall, all precious metals are benefiting from the current environment, but gold remains the biggest winner due to its close ties to monetary policies and its status as the primary safe haven for global investors.