Bitcoin's Muted Year-End Rally Could Reduce Risk of Major 2026 Crash — Pompliano

Source: DefiPlanet Original Title: Bitcoin’s muted year-end rally could reduce risk of major 2026 crash — Pompliano Original Link:

Lower Volatility May Provide Downside Protection

Bitcoin entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano recently suggested that Bitcoin’s underwhelming year-end price action may actually be a positive signal, lowering the risk of a deep market crash in early 2026.

Pompliano noted that Bitcoin’s volatility has compressed significantly. He stated: “Given where volatility is right now, it would be very surprising to see Bitcoin suffer a 70% or 80% drawdown.” He added that such crashes typically follow extreme speculative blow-off tops, which Bitcoin failed to deliver this cycle.

While Bitcoin did not surge toward the widely predicted $250,000 target, Pompliano argued that the absence of a euphoric rally may be providing structural stability to the market.

Long-Term Performance Remains Strong

Despite short-term frustration among investors, Pompliano emphasized Bitcoin’s long-term gains. Bitcoin has doubled over the past two years and is up nearly 300% over three years, making it one of the strongest performers across global financial markets.

“We didn’t get the blow-off top people expected, but we also didn’t get the massive crash that usually follows,” Pompliano explained.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at around $87,436, down roughly 7.4% since the start of the year.

Not All Analysts Agree

While Pompliano remains optimistic, other market veterans hold different views. Veteran trader Peter Brandt warned that Bitcoin could drop 35% to around $58,000 due to what he calls a “massive broadening top.” Similarly, a major institution’s director of global macro research warned that 2026 could be a “pause year” for Bitcoin, with prices potentially sliding toward the $65,000 level.