On December 26th this year, the Bitcoin options market will迎来 an unprecedented expiration and liquidation—options contracts with a notional value of approximately $23-24 billion will expire simultaneously. These positions are mainly concentrated on a leading derivatives platform, accounting for more than half of the platform's open interest, which will inevitably trigger a significant repositioning.

On the eve of expiration, market makers typically hedge continuously to maintain delta-neutral positions, controlling price fluctuations. As a result, Bitcoin has recently been tightly trapped within the $85,000-$93,000 range, repeatedly oscillating, with volatility noticeably suppressed. From an options positioning perspective, put options are concentrated around the $85,000 level, while call options target the upside space of $100,000-$120,000, with the maximum pain point at approximately $96,000—this price is likely to become the market's downward pull target.

Especially during the year-end holidays, when trading liquidity is generally thin, such price tug-of-war can easily trigger chain reactions of liquidations, leading to sharp volatility. In the short term, risks are indeed heavy.

However, the turning point lies in the fact that once the options expire, gamma exposure will dissipate, and the hedging pressure on market makers will vanish. The market will then enter a "liquidity vacuum" phase, where prices will more directly reflect fundamental logic rather than being constrained by hedging operations. If no new negative news breaks the deadlock, the traditional "Christmas season" seasonal effect may then kick in, even triggering an upward breakout, opening the door for a new wave of volatility in 2026.

Overall, this options expiration is a risk in the short term, amplifying uncertainty and volatility; but from a medium-term perspective, it is an excellent opportunity to clear excessive leverage bubbles, reset market positioning, and prepare for a new upward cycle. The best strategy for investors is: stay alert to volatility, but don't panic, and maintain rational positions.