2025 Gold Price Trend Forecast: Will Gold Continue to Rise?

Tariff policy upgrades and surging risk aversion demand have caused gold prices to break through $4,200 per ounce again. Facing such high levels, many investors are conflicted: is it still possible to follow in now? Does gold really have room to rise further?

Core Issues Facing Gold Price Forecasts

Since 2025, gold has performed exceptionally well, repeatedly hitting new all-time highs. Major institutions have raised their target price forecasts. However, market opinions differ on whether the trend will continue upward or experience a significant pullback. To make the right judgment, it’s essential to understand the fundamental logic behind the current gold rally.

Why Did Gold Prices Suddenly Accelerate?

To grasp this market movement, understanding the driving factors behind the rise is crucial.

Three Main Drivers

Policy Factors: Tariff Policies Spark a Risk-Off Wave

Recently, international trade tensions have intensified, and frequent tariff policy implementations have directly increased market uncertainty. When economic outlooks become ambiguous, investors instinctively turn to traditional safe-haven assets like gold, pushing up its price.

Interest Rate Factors: Market Expectations of Rate Cuts

US economic data show signs of labor market weakness, with economic growth under pressure. In this context, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle. Falling real interest rates are a clear positive for gold because gold itself does not generate income; the lower the real interest rate, the more attractive gold becomes.

Historical observations indicate that gold prices have an inverse relationship with real interest rates. When the market expects real rates to decline, gold usually rises; when expectations turn negative, gold tends to fall. This also explains why gold price fluctuations often closely follow Fed policy expectations and decisions.

Supply Side: Global Central Banks Continue to Accumulate Gold

Over the past two years, central banks worldwide have shown unprecedented enthusiasm for gold purchases. The People’s Bank of China has been rapidly increasing its holdings since March 2022, and this trend continues. According to international organization data, in the first half of 2025, global central banks net purchased 123 tons of gold, with monthly increases exceeding 20 tons.

More importantly, many central banks have announced plans to reduce reliance on US dollar assets, which means gold’s importance in global reserves will continue to rise.

Other Supporting Factors

In addition to the three main factors, the following backgrounds are also pushing up gold prices:

• Slowing global economic growth with inflation expectations still present
• Slight loosening of US dollar international credit
• Elevated geopolitical risks
• Media hype and social dissemination effects boosting short-term investment enthusiasm

Gold Price Trend Forecast: Will It Rise Further?

Institutional Consensus Is Bullish

Mainstream market voices point to continued upward movement. UBS and other investment banks believe gold could reach $4,500 per ounce in the coming months. Goldman Sachs even raised its 2026 target price from $4,300 to $4,900, citing strong central bank gold demand and diversification trends.

From the physical commodities market, prices of well-known domestic gold brands have already broken through 1150 yuan/gram, hitting new highs.

Expected Time Frame

Based on various institutional assessments, the upward cycle of gold is expected to continue until 2026. Fundamentally, the supporting factors remain robust. Unless a black swan event like an economic recession occurs, the overall trend forecast for gold prices should be upward.

Is It Too Late to Enter Now? Rational Analysis

Advice for Different Investors

If you are an experienced short-term trader, the current market liquidity is ample, with volatile prices providing opportunities for precise directional judgment and risk management. As long as you stay cautious and control risks, there is considerable short-term profit potential.

But if you lack trading experience, do not blindly follow the trend. You can start with small amounts to test the market rhythm, avoiding large initial positions.

If you are considering buying physical gold for long-term holding, you need to fully understand gold’s volatility. Historical data shows an average annual fluctuation of 19.4%, not lower than the stock market. Holding for ten years could double your investment or be cut in half. Additionally, transaction costs for physical gold (5%-20%) should not be overlooked.

Portfolio Allocation Recommendations

As part of asset allocation, a moderate allocation to gold is reasonable. However, it’s not advisable to concentrate too much capital in a single asset. Gold’s cyclical volatility is long-term, making it unsuitable as a core asset; it’s best used as insurance and a risk-diversification tool.

Three Must-Read Tips

1. Volatility exceeds expectations: Gold’s annual amplitude is 19.4%, far higher than the stock market’s 14.7%
2. Cycle is very long: Achieving preservation and appreciation requires a time horizon of over 10 years
3. Costs are relatively high: Trading fees and spreads will eat into returns

Overall Conclusion

The current economic cycle performance and US Treasury yields both support gold. Although inflation may exert some pressure, overall positive factors dominate. As long as the economy does not enter recession, driven by multiple positive factors, the forecast for gold prices in 2025 is: the upward trend is likely to continue.

Investors can position at dips according to their risk tolerance and trading experience. Long-term holding requires mental preparedness for volatility, while short-term trading should be cautious of rapid reversals.