Stock Portfolio 2025: Where to Focus Amid Tariff Chaos

The first half of 2025 is writing a very different story from 2024. While last year broke records for consecutive profitability, now investors are navigating a radically different landscape marked by aggressive protectionist measures and significant corrections across multiple markets.

The US administration has imposed tariffs that have hit hard: a 10% base on all imports, escalating up to 50% on the EU, 55% accumulated on China, and 24% on Japan. This cascade of measures triggered initial panic in global indices, while gold surged above $3,300 per ounce as a safe haven asset. However, after months of uncertainty, markets have found some balance, and major stock indices are already approaching new all-time highs.

In this context, identifying which short-term investment actions can generate value without overly exposing oneself to trade chaos has become a priority. The key is to choose companies with solid fundamentals, adaptability, and defensible competitive positions.

15 stocks to monitor: From energy to technology

We have compiled 15 companies categorized by sectors, evaluating not only their recent performance but also their potential for the coming months. Data up to July 2025 shows a complex picture where some global leaders have suffered deep corrections while others continue to accumulate gains.

Energy and commodities:

• Exxon Mobil (XOM): $112 per share, with YTD return of 4.3% and monthly gain of 6.89%
• BHP Group (BHP): $50.73, +3.46% year-to-date

Banking sector:

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM): $296 per share, leading with +23.48% annual and +10.97% monthly

Pharmaceuticals and health:

• Novo Nordisk (NVO): $69.17, with a -19.59% YTD retreat due to competitive pressure

Luxury and consumer:

• LVMH (MC): €477.3 on Euronext, -25.24% annual after Asian demand weakness
• Alibaba (BABA): $108.7, with extreme volatility (+28.20% annual but -10.5% in the last month)
• Toyota ™: $174.89, -10% year-to-date

Semiconductors and equipment:

• TSMC (234.89$): +18.89% YTD, +13.43% monthly
• ASML (799.59$): +14.63% annually but with correction cycles
• NVIDIA (110$): -17% YTD despite dominance in AI chips

Technology services:

• Microsoft (491.09$): +18.35% annually after early-year corrections
• Apple (212.44$): -4.72% YTD but +6% in recent weeks
• Amazon (219.92$): +1.83% YTD, sideways movement
• Alphabet (178.64$): -5.16% annually

Five core bets for the coming decades

Among all these options, five stand out as potentially more attractive catalysts, combining current challenges with structural opportunities. These stocks for short-term investing offer entry points adjusted after recent declines.

Novo Nordisk: Competition forces reconsideration

The Danish company grew 26% in sales during 2024, reaching $42.1 billion. But March 2025 brought a brutal blow: a 27% drop amid competitive concerns, especially over Eli Lilly’s Zepbound medication. CagriSema did not meet weight loss expectations.

However, the company has responded strategically. The acquisition of Catalent for $16.5 billion expanded production capacity. Additionally, the deal with Lexicon Pharmaceuticals for $1 billion for LX9851 adds a new mechanism of action against obesity.

The dual GLP-1/amylin molecule amycretin showed a 24% weight loss in early studies. Despite the CEO departure driven by pressure from activist fund Parvus, margins of 43% and robust R&D spending maintain credibility. Global demand for diabetes therapies will continue to support growth.

LVMH: Luxury correction after demand weakness

The €84.7 billion in revenue in 2024 projected strength with an operating margin of 23.1%. But January and April 2025 saw declines of 6.7% and 7.7%, respectively, after Q1 revenues of €20.3 billion (-3% year-over-year). US tariffs of 20% (temporarily reduced to 10%) impacted valuations.

The company advances with innovation: Dreamscape AI platform personalizes prices and experiences. Growth focuses emerge in Japan (double-digit in 2024), Middle East (+6% regional), and India with new Louis Vuitton and Dior stores in Mumbai.

ASML: EUV lithography leadership despite setbacks

2024 sales of €28.3 billion and gross margin of 51.3%. Q1 2025 recorded €7.7 billion in sales and a record 54% gross margin. The full-year guidance for 2025 is between €30 billion and €35 billion.

The 30% valuation drop is due to: reduced spending by Intel and Samsung, emerging Chinese competitors in lithography, and Dutch export restrictions (which ASML estimates will cut China sales by 10-15%).

Demand for advanced AI and high-performance computing chips sustains the need for EUV systems. The stock correction may present an attractive entry point in the semiconductor sector.

Microsoft: Tech giant in strategic realignment

Fiscal 2024 revenue of $245.1 billion (growth of 16%), rising operating margin. Shares corrected 20% from highs to an intraday low of $367.24 on March 31, with the quarter ending -11%.

FTC pressure over monopoly practices in cloud/cybersecurity added uncertainty. However, the April fiscal Q3 showed solid results: $70.1 billion in revenue and 46% operating margin. Azure and cloud services grew 33%.

Layoffs of over 15,000 between May and July redirect resources to AI. The financial position remains strong despite record infrastructure spending.

Alibaba: Chinese resurgence after relaxed regulation

Q4 2024 revenue of ¥280.2 billion (+8%), with Q1 2025 showing ¥236.45 billion and adjusted net profit +22% driven by Cloud Intelligence (+18%).

Shares fell 35% from 2024 highs due to concerns over massive AI/cloud investments and Chinese slowdown. January saw a correction, February a 40% rebound with the tech rally, then a 7% retreat after March results considered weak.

The three-year plan of ¥52 billion for AI infrastructure and a ¥50 billion coupon campaign supports a strategy to revitalize domestic consumption. Taking advantage of low prices today could offer future profitability.

Defensive strategy: How to build a portfolio amid uncertainty

In this volatile and unprecedented near-term landscape, defense is offensive. Three fundamental pillars:

Diversification without compromise: Combine sector exposure (technology, energy, luxury, finance) with geographic diversification (U.S., Europe, Asia). Companies with strong presence in domestic markets withstand tariff pressures better.

Quality as a shield: Identify leaders in innovation, with robust financial positions and adaptability. These will navigate adverse cycles without shareholder panic.

Informed flexibility: Stay alert to political-economic changes. Reading geopolitical tensions allows adjustments before the crowd reacts.

Access options: Beyond direct purchase

The identified stocks can be acquired through:

Individual stocks: Directly via bank or authorized broker.

Thematic funds: Automatic diversification by country, sector, or trend (active or passive management).

Derivatives and CFDs: Enable amplifying positions with less initial capital and hedging volatility through leverage. In an environment of aggressive policies, they can balance long-term exposure.

Leverage requires discipline: magnifying gains is tempting but also amplifies losses.

Final reflection: 2025 in perspective

This year marks the boundary between an unprecedented profitability boom and volatility that demands pragmatism. Past gains never guarantee future results: a unique reality with no close precedents.

The answer is not panic but calculated action. Diversified portfolios, safe assets like bonds and gold to offset potential declines, and patience during market panics that often precede bullish corrections.

The essential: being informed is being prepared. Those monitoring geopolitical, regulatory, and conflict developments will have a decisive advantage in protecting capital and capturing opportunities others miss due to emotional reactions.