A Half-Century Review of the Golden Bull Run | How Taiwan's All-Time High Gold Price Was Achieved, and Can It Continue in the Next 50 Years?

Since ancient times, gold has played an important role in the economy due to its high density, excellent ductility, and durable preservation. In addition to being used as currency, it is also widely applied in jewelry and industrial fields. Although gold prices have fluctuated over the past 50 years, the overall trend has been clearly upward, with 2025 marking a new all-time high. Will this half-century-long strong momentum continue into the next 50 years? How should investors view gold prices? Is it suitable for long-term holding or swing trading? Today, let’s explore this in depth.

From $35 to $4,300: The 50-Year Rise Behind Taiwan’s Record High Gold Price

Looking back at the history of gold prices, since President Nixon announced the suspension of the dollar-gold convertibility on August 15, 1971, breaking the Bretton Woods system, gold entered an era of free floating.

Over these more than 50 years, gold has risen from $35 per ounce to around $3,700 in the first half of 2025. In October 2024, spot gold even broke through the historic high of $4,300 per ounce for the first time, setting a new record for Taiwan’s highest gold price.

Overall, from 1971 to now, the gold price has increased by over 120 times! Notably, since 2024, global turmoil has persisted, with central banks and investment institutions continuously increasing their gold holdings, pushing gold prices to new records, with a surge of over 104% in 2024 alone.

Four Key Bullish Cycles in 50 Years of Gold Price Trends

First Wave (1970-1975): Trust Crisis After Decoupling

After the dollar and gold decoupled, international gold prices soared from $35 to $183, rising over 400% in five years. The fundamental reason for this surge was: the public lost confidence in the dollar—previously, the dollar was a gold exchange voucher, but now it could not be exchanged, leading people to fear the dollar would become worthless, preferring to hold gold. Subsequently, the oil crisis struck, and the US responded to increased demand by issuing more currency, further driving up gold prices. However, as the oil crisis eased and people gradually recognized the convenience of the dollar, gold prices fell back to around $100.

Second Wave (1976-1980): Geopolitical Turmoil Triggering Skyrocketing / surge

Gold prices jumped from $104 to $850, an increase of over 700%, in about three years. The second Middle East oil crisis, Iran hostage crisis, Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and other geopolitical upheavals intensified economic recession, causing inflation rates in Western countries to soar, which propelled gold into a skyrocketing / surge phase. However, this overhyped rally corrected quickly after the oil crisis eased and the Soviet Union disintegrated, with prices oscillating mainly between $200 and $300 over the next 20 years.

Third Wave (2001-2011): A Decade of Bull Market Driven by Anti-Terrorism and Financial Crisis

International gold prices rose from $260 to $1,921, a surge of over 700%, lasting a full 10 years. The 9/11 attacks changed the global geopolitical landscape, prompting the US to launch a decade-long global anti-terrorism campaign. To fund the massive military expenses, the US cut interest rates and issued debt, boosting the housing market, which eventually triggered the 2008 financial crisis. To rescue the economy, the US launched quantitative easing (QE), leading gold into a long-term bull market. By 2011, amid the European debt crisis, gold peaked at $1,921 per ounce. Later, with bailout measures in Europe and other regions, gold prices gradually stabilized around $1,000.

( Fourth Wave (2015-present): Era of Negative Interest Rates and De-dollarization

In the past decade, gold has experienced another strong surge. From 2015 to 2023, gold prices broke through from $1,060 to over $2,000. The driving factors are complex: Japan and Europe implemented negative interest rate policies, global de-dollarization trends persisted, the US resumed aggressive QE in 2020, the Russia-Ukraine war erupted in 2022, and conflicts like the Israel-Palestine clashes and the Red Sea crisis in 2023 further supported gold prices around $2,000.

Entering 2024-2025, gold prices reached an epic level. Early 2024, gold began a strong upward trend, with October seeing a surge past $2,800, creating an unprecedented new high. US economic policy risks, global central banks increasing gold reserves, and geopolitical instability have been the main drivers.

Since 2025, escalating tensions in the Middle East, unpredictable developments in Russia-Ukraine, US tariffs sparking trade concerns, global stock market volatility, and a weakening dollar index have all contributed to continuous skyrocket / surge in gold prices, repeatedly setting new records.

Is Gold Investment Worth It? Long-term Holding or Swing Trading?

To evaluate the value of gold investment, a cross-asset comparison analysis is necessary.

Past 50 Years Investment Returns:

• Gold: up 120 times since 1971
• US Dow Jones Industrial Average: from 900 points to about 46,000 points, up approximately 51 times

Over half a century, gold investment returns are comparable to or even better than stocks. Since early 2025, gold has risen from $2,690 per ounce to about $4,200 in October, a surge of over 56%.

But here’s a key issue: Gold prices do not rise steadily. Between 1980 and 2000, for 20 years, gold hovered between $200 and $300, making it impossible for investors to profit. How many 50-year periods are there in a lifetime to wait?

Therefore, gold is indeed a high-quality investment tool, but it is more suitable for swing trading during market trends rather than purely long-term holding. Another important rule is that, as a natural resource, the cost and difficulty of gold mining increase over time. Even if a bullish trend ends, prices may retreat, but historical lows tend to rise gradually, indicating that its long-term value preservation function remains. Investors should understand this pattern and avoid overly pessimistic psychology during downturns.

Five Ways to Invest in Gold Compared

) 1. Physical Gold Direct purchase of gold bars or other physical gold. Advantages include asset concealment and the ability to use jewelry functions; disadvantages are inconvenient trading and poor liquidity.

2. Gold Passbook

Similar to early foreign exchange passbook systems. Buying and selling gold automatically records in the passbook, which can be used to withdraw or deposit physical gold at any time. Advantages include portability; disadvantages are that banks do not pay interest, and the buy-sell spread is large. Mainly suitable for long-term investment.

3. Gold ETFs

Compared to gold passbooks, ETFs offer better liquidity and easier trading. After purchase, you hold a stock certificate representing the amount of gold you own. Since the issuing company charges management fees, if gold prices fluctuate long-term, ETF value may gradually decline.

4. Gold Futures and Contracts for Difference (CFD)

These are the most commonly used tools by retail investors. Futures and CFDs are margin-based trading mechanisms with low trading costs. CFDs are more flexible in trading hours and have higher capital efficiency, especially suitable for small investors and short-term swing trading. These derivatives typically support two-way trading (long and short), allowing investors to flexibly position based on their price judgment.

5. Gold Funds and Trust Products

Indirectly hold gold through funds or trust products, avoiding the hassle of management and storage.

Investment Logic of Gold, Stocks, and Bonds

The return sources of these three assets are entirely different:

• Gold: Mainly gains from price differences, does not generate interest; key is timing of entry and exit
• Bonds: Mainly from interest payments, requires increasing holdings to boost income, and needs to consider central bank policies
• Stocks: Mainly from company appreciation, focus on stock selection and long-term holding

Difficulty ranking of investment: Bonds easiest, gold next, stocks most difficult

Performance over the past 30 years: Stocks have the highest returns, followed by gold, then bonds (though over the past 50 years, gold appears to be the best)

To profit from gold investment, the key is to grasp market trends: usually characterized by long bullish phases → rapid decline → consolidation → re-initiation of bullish cycles. If you can accurately identify bullish uptrends or sharp declines for shorting, the returns often surpass bonds and stocks.

Wise Asset Allocation Principles

There is a fundamental investment principle: “In periods of economic growth, allocate to stocks; during recessions, allocate to gold.”

When the economic environment is good, corporate profits are optimistic, and stocks tend to rise, while fixed-income bonds and safe-haven gold are less favored. Conversely, during economic downturns, stocks lose appeal, and the market favors gold’s preservation function and bonds’ fixed yields.

The most prudent strategy is to set asset allocation ratios of stocks, bonds, and gold based on individual risk appetite and investment goals. Market volatility is constant, with sudden events like the Russia-Ukraine war and inflation hikes. Holding appropriate proportions of multiple asset classes can offset some risks and make the portfolio more resilient.

Looking at the process of Taiwan’s historical record high gold prices, what we see is not only numerical climbing but also the profound influence of the global economy and geopolitical factors. When investing in gold, it’s essential to recognize its value as a traditional safe-haven asset and understand the deep logic behind its price fluctuations to make wiser decisions in complex markets.