Bitcoin touches $90,000 and reaches its highest price in 8 days; will the rally sustain?

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Bitcoin touches US$ 90 thousand and reaches highest price in 8 days; will the rally sustain? Original Link: Bitcoin rose to an eight-day high of $90,353 this Monday (22), but on-chain data raises doubts about the sustainability of this upward movement.

Since then, the main cryptocurrency has declined and is now trading just below $90,000, with a 2.2% increase on the day, according to data from CoinGecko.

The data indicates that the movement was driven by speculative trading in the futures market, rather than by genuine demand from investors.

Since December 18, open interest and the accumulated delta volume (CVD) of perpetual futures have been showing an upward trend, while the CVD of the spot market has decreased. This divergence is a classic sign of a derivative-led movement, where leveraged bets push the price up without a corresponding purchase in the spot market.

Broader market indicators reinforce this caution.

The so-called “Coinbase premium,” which tracks the price difference of Bitcoin compared to global averages, returned to negative territory after a brief positive period at the end of November and mid-December. This indicates a lack of buying demand with a premium from US investors, a key group for the market.

Moreover, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have recorded net outflows in recent weeks, with no signs of a consistent return of institutional flows.

With that, the technical scenario remains challenging.

The aggregated open interest has been declining since the end of November, and Bitcoin has been repeatedly rejected every time it tries to break and hold above the $90,000 level, which highlights persistent selling pressure.

The positive side

The only relevant exception to the negative flow data comes from corporate balances. The Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) recorded approximately $2.23 billion in net inflows in the week of December 15 to 21. This represents a jump of 72% compared to the $1.293 billion in total inflows of DATs reported a few days earlier, on December 17.

This was the largest weekly inflow since the end of September and was driven by significant purchases of Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum by corporate treasuries.

The factor that triggered this increase in the accumulation of DATs was the decision on interest rates by the US central bank on December 10.

A vulnerable rally

Still, this concentrated institutional accumulation has not been enough to generate broad strength in the market. With the typical pattern of liquidity reduction at the end of the year, the current rally — supported by activity in the futures market — seems vulnerable to the same headwinds that have already thwarted previous attempts to maintain momentum above $90,000.

Other analysts interpret the current activity as a consolidation within a well-defined range, rather than a directional movement.

“Bitcoin trading around US$ 90,000 does not signal either strength or weakness at this moment,” said Georgii Verbitskii, founder of the DeFi platform TYMIO. “Technically, Bitcoin is still stuck in a sideways movement between approximately US$ 85,000 and US$ 95,000 and, for now, it is a market without a clear directional bias.”

Verbitskii does not expect a definition before mid-January, when the market will have more clarity on “whether companies with treasury heavily exposed to Bitcoin will continue to be eligible for inclusion in the MSCI index.” Until then, he sees the scenario as “a consolidation, not the beginning of a new trend.”

Ryan Lee, the chief analyst of a crypto brokerage, forecasts a tighter range over the holidays.

“For the year-end period, our outlook is that BTC will trade between $86,000 and $93,000, and ETH between $2,800 and $3,200,” said Lee. He cited the return of institutional flows and the possibility of clearer regulatory advances as the main supporting factors.