#美联储降息 The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle may be shorter than expected. Here are the latest predictions from several institutions: a cumulative cut of less than 75 BP, a pause in January next year, and a pattern of cutting 25 BP in March and June reappears. A key signal is that Powell will emphasize in his statement that "the threshold for further rate cuts is very high"—this wording change is noteworthy.

From an on-chain perspective, expectations of easing corrections usually lead to a reallocation of funds. Over the past few days, several large wallets have been observed frequently converting between USDT and mainstream cryptocurrencies, most likely adjusting their exposure according to the pace of interest rate cuts. If we really enter a pause in interest rate cuts next year, liquidity expectations will significantly downgrade, which will diminish the support for risk assets.

In the short term, there may still be fluctuations in policies and trading opportunities, but in the medium term, the gradual retreat of interest rate cut benefits is a certain trend. It is recommended to pay attention to whether there are obvious position movements or risk exposure adjustments in the contract data, as this often indicates that large funds are reacting in advance to policy shifts.