#非农数据超预期.

This is not single-point noise, but the effect of "slow variables" at work.

On the surface, the November job gains of 64,000 are higher than expected, but a deeper breakdown reveals that the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, the previous figure has been significantly revised downward, and wages are slowing down—all pointing in the same direction: the labor market is still expanding, but clearly decelerating. This combination is less like short-term noise and more like a stage signal of long-term trends gradually emerging.

Especially notable is the October employment revision of 105,000, a rare correction since the pandemic, indicating that previous judgments about employment resilience may have been overly optimistic. The Federal Reserve is not focused on "whether new jobs are added," but on "whether employment is still overheating." From this perspective, the current data just happen to align with the "soft landing" path.

For the market, this means that concerns about tightening are marginally easing, but it does not mean an immediate shift to an easing cycle. In the short term, the crypto market is more likely to perform as "bottomed but not anxious," with liquidity expectations supporting the floor but lacking conditions for an immediate breakout.