Debates about the four-year cycle in the market are still ongoing—some firmly believe the pattern remains unchanged, while others think this time is different. In reality, arguing about it is pointless; time will provide the answer.

It all depends on January and February of next year. If Bitcoin can break through its all-time high, then the so-called four-year cycle might really be rewritten; but if it can’t even hold steady at $100,000, then entering a bear market in 2026 is virtually guaranteed.

Who is still bullish on the table now? Take a close look—most are exchanges and project teams. For example, a founder of a major platform recently said the super cycle is coming— but you need to think clearly about what they do. Exchange founders naturally want a hotter market, as trading volume is the real money. Have you ever seen a casino boss tell players not to bet? Exchanges earn fees, project teams release new tokens, and everyone is happy.

In the end, isn’t it ordinary retail investors who get swept up in emotions, chasing highs and standing on the sidelines?