#比特币行情观察 Don't rush to catch the bottom; around 80,000 may not be the bottom of this Bitcoin cycle.

Currently, Bitcoin is near $92,000, and expectations for a correction vary significantly across different timeframes. In the short term, corrections are expected mainly between $80,000 and $86,000; in the medium term, a dip to $40,000 - $70,000 is highly probable, with a possibility of falling even lower, as detailed below:
1. Short-term (by the end of 2025): Most opinions believe the correction will focus on the $80,000 - $86,000 range. Derek Lim, research director at a cryptocurrency trading firm, thinks Bitcoin will consolidate between $83,000 and $95,000; analysts also mention that $86,000 is a key support level. If it can't hold, it will test $83,000 - $85,000. Some believe $80,400 is the last defensive bottom in the short term; a breakdown below could lead to new lows. On November 21, Bitcoin dropped to a low of 80,508.60 points, which is considered its correction bottom, followed by a new all-time high. The probability of this scenario is about 20%.
2. Medium-term (2026): Most analysts believe the correction will go well beyond $75,000, likely reaching $40,000 - $70,000. Analyst Benjamin Cowen, based on the extended cycle theory, predicts a low around October 2026 of $40,000 - $60,000; he also mentioned that Bitcoin might test the current 200-week SMA at around $60,000 - $70,000. Technical analysis shows that once Bitcoin breaks below the bear market limit, it could continue to decline to $66,800. Additionally, Lim from Caladan warns that breaking below $75,000 could trigger a more severe sell-off.
3. Correction limit: Based on current institutional and analyst forecasts, the extreme limit of this correction is likely around $40,000. On one hand, Cowen’s cycle theory suggests a target range of $40,000 - $60,000, derived from past three Bitcoin bull-bear cycles. On the other hand, the market still faces risks such as ETF outflows and global liquidity fluctuations. If future regulatory tightening or large-scale institutional withdrawals occur, a black swan event could push the correction below $40,000. However, the probability of such an extreme scenario is low; it is mainly a projection under extreme risk conditions.