At 3 a.m. on the 11th, the Fed's interest rate decision is coming.

Don't stare at those 25 basis points, it's always Powell's mouth that really stirs up the market.

**Conclusion first**

Cut interest rates by 25bp? There is a high probability that it will land. But don't be too happy, the supporting rhetoric is likely to be hawkish, directly pouring cold water on you, and strangling the fantasy of "continuous interest rate cuts" in the cradle.

**Probability Distribution**

- 25bp rate cut: 88%
- Stand Still: 11%
- 50bp rate cut: 1%

The market pricing has already pushed the 25bp level to around 90%, and there is little suspense.

Where is the real drama? **

Sugar is a rate cut, and the knife is hidden in the dot plot and press conference.

Use sugar to lure you in, and then use a knife to decide whether you earn fluctuations or be eaten by fluctuations.

Why did it fall? **

**1. Tail risks of employment are on the rise**
The labor market is marginally weakening, and the probability of policy accidents is rising. The mainstream expectation is that the Fed would rather make small moves to manage risk than bet on the wrong treasure.

**2. Data fog turns big action into a big gamble**
In the case of delays in the release of key data due to government shutdowns and incomplete information, the Commission prefers to make small calibrations rather than heavy bets.

**3. Powell's constraints are not macro, they are governance**
When the hawk-dove divide intensifies, what he needs is a "manageable compromise":
- Give the market an unexpected move
- Give hawks a narrative that doesn't let go
- Hold the discretion of the future firmly in your hands

Why is it still not going down? **

Letting go early when inflation is still above 2% will be regarded as a "credit discount" by hawks. The greater the difference, the more people advocate "holding back" in exchange for consensus.

**Most Likely Playbook**

25bp cut + statement hawkish + press conference more hawkish.

Powell will most likely drive three nails into your head:
1. The policy is still restrictive
2. Subsequent meeting-by-meeting evaluation
3. Market pricing ≠ Fed commitment

**Three needles on the night of resolution**

- Is the statement about employment weaker?
- Is the median path in 2026 higher or more split in the dot plot?
- Was the press conference actively suppressed financial conditions relaxed too quickly?

**So**

Even if interest rates are cut, they may not necessarily rise. The probability of needle insertion back and forth is high.

Now big money is only eyeing US stocks and Bitcoin because there is a real value base there.