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The recent movements in the crypto market have been a bit strange. The supply side keeps tightening, and there hasn’t been any large-scale sell-off on the demand side. Logically, prices should be holding up or even moving higher. But what happened? Bitcoin has been dropping dramatically, the $100,000 psychological barrier is on shaky ground, and many people are starting to wonder if a whale is dumping.
After tracking the market for three years, I feel this time is different from before. This round of decline isn’t due to panic selling—the real issue lies with the US Treasury: they’ve tightened the liquidity valve.
You might wonder: what does the Treasury have to do with our crypto space? That brings us to the current gridlock in Washington. The government shutdown has left the Treasury sitting on over $150 billion, and because of procedural holdups, this money can’t enter the market at all. Don’t underestimate that number—the market is like a circulatory system, and funds are its lifeblood. With such a huge sum locked up, it’s like draining blood directly from the market.
How sensitive are crypto assets to liquidity flows? Extremely sensitive. Institutional funds that were on the sidelines, considering whether to enter, suddenly saw less money in the market. As liquidity slowed, institutions immediately hesitated and even started to reduce their positions to hedge risks. This creates a vicious cycle: buying power weakens, prices naturally can’t hold up, and can only keep sliding.
Here’s a data point I can share: over the past six months, whenever liquidity from the Treasury fluctuated—