PCE data released—Is Bitcoin about to change direction?

Recently, US inflation data came out—the PCE Price Index and Core PCE both performed as expected, with no surprises. The Consumer Confidence Index isn’t the main focus, but it’s still worth a glance.

Let’s talk about the relationship between PCE and crypto prices. The logic is pretty straightforward: if PCE comes in lower than expected, it means inflation isn’t that strong, so the Fed doesn’t have to tighten monetary policy aggressively and might even consider easing up. When there’s more money in the market, risk assets like Bitcoin naturally benefit. But if PCE surges, that’s trouble—the Fed might hike rates further, funding costs will soar, and asset prices are likely to take a hit. Since this data was in line with expectations, the market stayed calm—assets rose or fell as usual.

Right now, Bitcoin is climbing within a channel, but honestly, this is probably just a breather after a long-term decline. Reversing the overall downtrend? Tough. If the channel breaks, prices could drop straight below 75,000—so keep a close eye on the charts, don’t get careless.

Here’s the key: two major events are coming up in the next two weeks—Fed rate cuts next week, and a rate hike from Japan the week after. These two pieces of news are like ticking time bombs and will likely shake up the market, with a high chance of a wave of liquidations. On the flip side, crisis often means opportunity—this could be the last dip-buying window this year.

If you have a high risk tolerance and want to get in, here’s a suggestion: prioritize spot purchases in batches to average your entry price. When the market drops sharply (commonly called a “wick down”), carefully add to your position with leveraged contracts. With contracts, always control your position size and set stop-losses and take-profits—don’t get wiped out by a sudden reversal. With the market this unpredictable, it’s best to play it safe.