This Thursday, the Fed’s last rate-setting meeting of the year will reveal its decision. Data from CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has soared to over 85%. If it happens, this would be the third consecutive cut since September, and the federal funds rate would further drop to 3.5%-3.75%.

A rate cut? Sounds like good news for the crypto market. But don’t celebrate just yet—what does an 85% probability mean? The market has already priced in this expectation. What’s truly worth watching isn’t whether the Fed cuts rates this time, but rather how the Fed views the interest rate trajectory for next year.

The timeline is a bit messy. The US federal government previously shut down for 43 days, which directly led to the cancellation of October’s CPI data release, and November’s data was delayed until December 18—exactly one week after this meeting. In other words, the Fed’s decision-makers are missing two months of inflation data. Making judgments with incomplete information will only make policy guidance more ambiguous and create greater room for market volatility.

Where’s the core game? The interest rate path from 2025 to 2026. After each FOMC meeting, the Fed releases a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and the “dot plot” in it shows the distribution of committee members’ expectations for future rates. This is what really matters...