The sharp volatility on December 5th surely made many people sweat. But just as the market was sinking into anxiety, an unexpected voice came from Wall Street.



JPMorgan’s latest research report offered a bold figure: using a volatility-adjusted gold parity model, they calculated Bitcoin’s theoretical value to be around $170,000. If this model is reliable, then the current price is just a little over half of that, and there’s still 84% upside potential in the next 6 to 12 months.

To be honest, this kind of prediction sounds very tempting, but the market never follows the script. The strategy team did emphasize the long-term value potential, but no one can predict short-term fluctuations. At this level, some people see it as a great buying opportunity, while others worry it’s a bull trap.

What do you think? How credible are these big institutions’ prediction models? Or is the risk of getting in now just too high? Let’s share our thoughts—maybe we’ll spark some new ideas.
BTC3.04%
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • 8
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
0/400
IfIWereOnChainvip
· 5h ago
JPMorgan is telling stories again. $170,000 sounds great, but reality will probably slap them in the face. They predict a rise when shorting, and when it rises they talk about a pullback. I’m tired of this routine. Rather than trust their models, I’d rather trust how much longer my own wallet can hold out. If I weren’t so badly trapped in this wave, I’d actually find it funny.
View OriginalReply0
SurvivorshipBiasvip
· 12-06 08:29
JPMorgan is making up stories again. Just take that 170,000 number with a grain of salt, don't take it seriously. --- 84% upside? They're dreaming, their predictions last year weren't accurate either. --- To put it bluntly, they just want to attract retail investors to take the bait. Institutions always play the same tricks. --- Short-term volatility is just institutions fleecing retail investors, don't get brainwashed by the "long-term value" talk. --- A 50% discount is definitely tempting, but I'm more worried it might drop fivefold instead. --- If JPMorgan says it's bullish, then you should definitely do the opposite. That's Wall Street's usual trick. --- At this price, I wouldn't dare make a move. I'll wait until it drops another 30%.
View OriginalReply0
PriceOracleFairyvip
· 12-06 06:29
jpm's volatility-adjusted model is just fancy cope tbh... they're basically fitting historical noise into a framework that screams "correlation ≠ causation"
Reply0
DataPickledFishvip
· 12-06 06:28
JPMorgan is here to fleece retail investors again, $170,000? Who would believe that during a pump? --- 84% upside? Just listen and move on, institutions are always wise after the fact. --- Bottom fishing at half price? To me it looks more like a bait for 5x leverage. --- Volatility-adjusted model... Basically, it's just the price they want you to buy at. --- No one can predict the short term, what about the long term? Can't predict that either, haha. --- If it's really going to $170K, JPMorgan would have already gone all in. But what are they doing? Still just talking. --- Just treat these reports as reading material—if you use them as a guide, you'll lose money. --- Anyone entering now is cannon fodder, right? I'll just keep watching. --- Gold parity model sounds fancy, but it's really just a wild guess.
View OriginalReply0
liquidation_surfervip
· 12-06 06:19
That number from JPMorgan sounds really tempting, but I think... you have to take what institutions say with a grain of salt—they're profiting off of us too. Another wild trend is coming, but this time I really don't dare to go all in. $170,000? I'll wait and see. Jumping in now just feels like I'm destined to be the one getting fleeced. I don't really trust Wall Street's models. What were they saying this time last year? Didn't they end up getting proven wrong? I'm anxious, but as for bottom fishing... I'm still on the sidelines watching.
View OriginalReply0
ChainWatchervip
· 12-06 06:16
I don't believe JPMorgan's prediction of 170,000; this model is probably just another way to lure retail investors into taking the bait.
View OriginalReply0
FancyResearchLabvip
· 12-06 06:12
JPMorgan is playing volatility-adjusted math games again. Theoretically, it should work, but in reality... Well, let me try out this model first—what if I end up locking myself in again? But seriously, 84% upside sounds academically valuable but practically useless. Whoever believes it is bound to lose. Luban No.7 is at it again with another project. I'll bet five bucks this prediction will flop as usual. This contract is kind of interesting, but I really respect anyone who dares to use leverage on it. Isn't this just another useless innovation? At this point? I think the risks and opportunities are equally big. Either way, it's all a gamble.
View OriginalReply0
MoneyBurnervip
· 12-06 06:08
I’ve looked at JPMorgan’s model, and the volatility-adjusted theory has already been tested long ago. According to their logic, gold should’ve broken $10,000 ages ago. I do want to open a position, but is this 50% discount really that attractive, or are institutions just setting a trap for retail investors? Honestly, who really knows.
View OriginalReply0
Trade Crypto Anywhere Anytime
qrCode
Scan to download Gate App
Community
English
  • 简体中文
  • English
  • Tiếng Việt
  • 繁體中文
  • Español
  • Русский
  • Français (Afrique)
  • Português (Portugal)
  • Bahasa Indonesia
  • 日本語
  • بالعربية
  • Українська
  • Português (Brasil)