#比特币对比代币化黄金 Recently I looked over BTC's monthly-level pullback data from the past few years and found it pretty interesting.

In a bull market, normal corrections are basically kept within the 30%-40% range. If it really turns into a bear market, it has to drop more than 50% to count. Now we've pulled back 36% from the high, and to be honest, that's still within the safety margin.

Looking at it from a time perspective, it's even clearer—historically, corrections of this level usually take about three months, and we've only made it halfway through. So I think there's a high probability we'll be bouncing around the bottom for another month or so, likely fluctuating between 75,000 and 88,000. If there really is a rate cut in December, it's not surprising if we break out upward; if not, then we might dip below 80,000 for a bit.

But to be honest, whether or not there's a rate cut in December doesn't really change the overall direction. Sooner or later, rate cuts will come, and next year's easing will only be more aggressive than this year, with the market reacting even more strongly. I still don't think 126,000 is the ceiling for this cycle—if things go quickly, we could see a decent rally by Q1; if it takes longer, then Q2.

And even if you think the bear market has really arrived—based on past patterns, after three months of consecutive drops, there should be a decent rebound, right? You can't just watch that kind of opportunity slip away. $BTC $ETH $BNB