Analyst: Weak employment data makes a 25 basis point rate cut next week almost certain, market focus shifts to the dot plot.

2025-12-05 06:38:19

Abstract generation in progress

[Bitpush] Daniel Loughney, an analyst at an international fund, recently shared his views on next week’s monetary policy. He believes a 25 basis point rate cut is pretty much a done deal, mainly because the employment data is really not looking good.

Interestingly, the last rate cut was widely interpreted by the market as a “hawkish cut”—rates were lowered, but the stance remained tough. However, Loughney thinks that with the labor market this weak, the central bank’s attitude might have to soften a bit, since the data speaks for itself.

What’s really worth watching are two things: how the dot plot will be adjusted, and what signals the quarterly economic forecasts will send. Traders are keeping a close eye on these, looking for any hint of a policy shift. After all, at this critical moment, even the slightest change in wording could trigger a chain reaction in the markets.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

8 Likes

Reward
8
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

DeFiCaffeinator

· 3h ago

The 25 basis point rate cut has been written on the wall for a while; with employment data this bad, how could they not cut? The real mystery lies in the dot plot. When they did that hawkish rate cut, I already thought the market misunderstood it. Now that the labor market is like this, what’s the point of the central bank staying tough? They need to soften their stance. How the dot plot changes is the key— even a minor wording tweak can create waves. Traders probably won’t get much sleep this week keeping an eye on this. The current market is just a "guess the policy intent" game. Honestly, it’s a bit exhausting. Let’s just wait and see how things react next week.

View OriginalReply0

GateUser-c802f0e8

· 12-05 07:08

A 25bp rate cut should have happened long ago. With employment data this bad, why are they still holding on? --- The dot plot is the real killer move. Just a couple of wording changes can trigger a bloodbath. --- I really don't get this hawkish rate cut act. The labor market is already like this, so what's with the tough stance? --- Basically, everyone is just waiting to see if the central bank will really soften its stance. The data is right there. --- Traders are something else, always trying to find signals between the lines—it's all a psychological game. --- I just want to know if the quarterly forecast will pull the "mild deceleration" move again.

View OriginalReply0

ser_aped.eth

· 12-05 07:08

A rate cut is a done deal, but the dot plot is where the real action is. --- With such dismal employment data, the central bank should ease up, right? --- Every time it's just a slight change in wording that can tank the market. Incredible. --- Waiting to see how the dot plot shapes up—that's the real key. --- Hawkish turning dovish? Let's see what the data says. --- Traders are all wordsmiths now; a single phrase can fuel hours of speculation. --- A 25 basis point cut is certain, but what happens next is what will really move the market. --- With the labor market like this, they're still being tough? The central bank needs to wake up.

View OriginalReply0

CommunitySlacker

· 12-05 06:58

25bp is a done deal, so it all depends on the employment data to save the market. The dot plot is the real game-changer; the truth is in the details, everyone. Time to start interpreting the central bank’s implied messages again—exhausting. Last time it was a hawkish rate cut, now they’re softening up. This back-and-forth has trapped so many people. If you can speak plainly, just do it. Why make everything so convoluted?

View OriginalReply0

SolidityStruggler

· 12-05 06:58

The employment data is so bad, whether they cut rates or not, they're being forced into it. The dot plot really can determine the market trend going forward, need to keep a close eye on it. Last time there was a hawkish rate cut, the market reacted so strongly; this time it should be even crazier. Feels like the central bank is out of options, the data is right there. Even changes in wording can trigger a chain reaction? Then just be ready to get rekt.

View OriginalReply0

WalletAnxietyPatient

· 12-05 06:49

A rate cut is pretty much certain; the key is just how dovish the central bank will be... Once the dot plot is out, it'll be time for another round of interpreting their wording—so annoying. With employment data this bad, not cutting rates would be insane. The central bank will probably have to back down this time; the labor market really can't hold up anymore. Even tiny wording details can cause waves—traders really do read into every little thing. That hawkish rate cut last time was scary; hopefully this one will be milder... If the data is weak, the central bank has no way to tough it out. Let's just wait and see.

View OriginalReply0

MultiSigFailMaster

· 12-05 06:43

A rate cut is set, the key is how the dot plot will look. --- With employment data this weak, it's understandable for the central bank to soften its stance. --- Even wording changes can trigger a chain reaction—markets are really fragile these days. --- Waiting to see the quarterly projections, feels like that's the real highlight. --- Last time was a hawkish rate cut, hopefully it'll be gentler this time, haha. --- Every time traders have to guess the direction from the dot plot—must be exhausting. --- With such obvious employment weakness, a 25 basis point cut is pretty much a sure thing.

View OriginalReply0

Trending TopicsView More
#JoinGrowthPointsDrawToWiniPhone17
286.99K Popularity
#DecemberMarketOutlook
81.84K Popularity
#PostonSquaretoEarn$50
14.94K Popularity
#LINKETFToLaunch
13.82K Popularity
#SharingMy100xToken
16.09K Popularity

Hot Gate FunView More

1
GcashGcash
MC:$3.92KHolders:4
1.92%
2
GHOSTGhost
MC:$3.65KHolders:3
0.53%
3
BONDXBONDX
MC:$3.58KHolders:3
0.00%
4
ICBGIceberg
MC:$10.61KHolders:13
27.06%
5
GBIRDGBird
MC:$3.53KHolders:1
0.00%

Sitemap