85% or 200% Surge Next for Cardano? ADA Tests Key Level Linked to Historic Breakouts

Cardano’s native token has been among the poorest performers in the past year, with on-chain data suggesting that ADA active wallets are down over 40% on their investments within this timeframe.

However, this could actually be bullish for the underlying asset, especially when it’s combined with another signal recently published by popular analyst Ali Martinez.

Double- or Triple-Digit Surge for ADA Next?

The key level in question that ADA is currently testing is the support at $0.25. In fact, the asset has slipped to it on a couple of occasions in the past month alone, but has managed to defend it so far. The only exception was the February 6 flash crash when it dumped to $0.22, but that was a one-off wick, and it quickly rebounded above that line.

Martinez’s data shows that the last two times Cardano’s token successfully bounced on a higher timeframe from this support have led to impressive gains. More precisely, it rocketed by 85% in the first part of 2023 and a whopping 200% from October 2023 to March 2024.

The last two times Cardano $ADA traded around $0.25, it bounced 85% and 200%.

What do you think happens now? pic.twitter.com/7VFKqUH05c

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 24, 2026

Before this, the TD Sequential printed a buy signal on ADA’s weekly chart after the asset plunged from its mid-January peak of $0.44 to the current $0.26. Aside from this 40% drop in two months, the token remains more than 90% away from its September 2021 all-time high of over $3.00.

ADA Wallets in Red

Citing data from Santiment, CryptoPotato reported earlier today that Cardano investors have remained deep in the red on their investments, as the active wallets were down 43% over the past year.

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However, this rather painful negative MVRV value is typically regarded as a bullish indicator, showing that the underlying asset might have already bottomed, and it could serve as a “buy zone” opportunity.

“In a zero-sum game, when average returns are severely negative, this is an indication of a looming turnaround with coins always averaging 0% on MVRV’s across any timeframe. So when other traders are in severe pain, key stakeholders and professional traders are intrigued by this due to the lowered risk of buying or adding on to their positions,” Santiment’s analysts explained.

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