Prediction Market

Polymarket predictions show that the probability of Bitcoin rebounding to $75,000 has increased to 84%, with a 40% probability of reaching $80,000. Meanwhile, the probability of falling back to $65,000 has decreased to 30%. Current BTC price is 73,758.1 USDT, up 1.29%.

Gate News reports that on March 16, Polymarket platform data shows the probability of betting that "edgeX FDV exceeds $300 million one day after launch" is 92%. Additionally, the probability of exceeding $500 million one day after launch is 64%, and the probability of exceeding $700 million one day after launch is 50%. The trading volume for this prediction event has currently exceeded $4.7 million.

Gate News, on March 16, according to Dune data, prediction market platform Polymarket's trading volume exceeded $2.1 billion in the first week of March, breaking its historical record once again.

Gate News report: On March 16, prediction market platform Opinion announced the launch of a liquidity incentive mechanism. Effective immediately, the platform will allocate 50% of the transaction fees from each successful trade order to users who provided liquidity for that order. This mechanism aims to incentivize liquidity provision, optimize market depth, attract more liquidity providers to participate in market making, and further enhance overall market activity.

It has been reported that recently on Polymarket, investors have bet that Iran's regime will collapse within the year, with over $548,700 invested. Military strikes and internal turmoil have intensified the regime's instability, with the nation facing severe water shortages and internet outages, creating tense domestic conditions.

Since January 6th, Polymarket has accumulated over $11.2 million in trading fees while distributing $13.41 million in liquidity subsidies. If the data from the second half of the month continues, trading fees will cover liquidity subsidy expenses.

On March 16, Polymarket data showed that an investor bet on a US-Iran ceasefire before July with an 88% win rate. Trump and US officials expressed skepticism toward negotiations, while Iran's foreign minister insisted they are not seeking a ceasefire. Oman and Egypt are attempting to restart communications, but the White House has not yet responded.

Polymarket's predictions for 14 core categories at the 98th Academy Awards achieved 86% accuracy on 12 items. The accurately predicted categories included Best Picture and Best Director, among others. The two mispredictions were Best Cinematography and Best Casting, where "The Brutalist" and "Wicked" each pulled off upset wins.

Recently, rumors about the health status of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu have drawn attention, with multiple users betting on prediction markets that he will step down before March 31st. Netanyahu attempted to clarify through a new video, but still faced skepticism, with concerns that the video may be AI-generated, failing to dispel the controversy.

In brief Contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket now give Democrats a 51% chance of winning Senate control, edging Republicans at 49%. The shift marks a dramatic reversal from a year ago, when markets priced Democrats at just 18% probability of taking the chamber. Kalshi data shows Democrats’

Prediction market data shows Democrats have a 51% probability of leading Republicans in controlling the Senate for the first time in the 2026 midterm elections. This shift reflects a significant change in market sentiment over the past year, with geopolitical factors potentially driving this trend. Currently, trading is active, and developments over the coming months may impact the election landscape.

According to Gate News, on March 16th, an account placed a $320,000 bet on the Kings giving 2.5 points against the Jazz in an NBA regular season game, profiting over $10 million. The game will take place this morning at 10 AM, with both the Kings and Jazz ranked at the bottom of the Western Conference.

Kevin O'Leary revealed on the Oscar red carpet that he placed a $1,000 bet on Timothée Chalamet to win Best Actor. Chalamet currently has a 31% probability of winning on prediction markets. If he wins, he will become the second-youngest Best Actor winner in Oscar history, competing against rivals including Michael B. Jordan and Leonardo DiCaprio.

Gate News reports that on March 16, the probability of the event "Trump will visit China before March 31" on Polymarket briefly dropped to 49%, a 16% decrease over 24 hours, with trading volume exceeding $3 million. Additionally, the probability of the event "Trump will visit China before April 30" is currently reported at 77%, with trading volume also exceeding $3 million.

Gate News reports that on March 16, a prediction platform's event odds for "Oppenheimer to Win the Oscar for Best Picture" surged to 91% in a short time, with a 24-hour gain of 34%, and trading volume exceeding 3 million dollars. The 98th Academy Awards ceremony officially began at 8:00 AM Beijing time, with the entire ceremony lasting approximately 4 hours. The Oscar for Best Picture will be announced as the final award at around 11:10 AM.

Kalshi and Polymarket anticipate that the Democratic Party will sweep both the House and the Senate in the midterm elections slated for November. There is a close to 50% chance of this outcome, while the second option, where Democrats win the House but lose the Senate, reaches 37%. Blue Sweep:

Gate News reports that on March 15, Polymarket prediction market data showed that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 within the year is 40%, the probability of reaching $90,000 is 53%, and the probability of reaching $80,000 is 76%. Additionally, the probability of BTC dropping to $50,000 within the year is 61%.

Gate News reports that on March 15, Polymarket launched a new prediction market yesterday asking "By what date will military action against Iran end?" The current probability for No is 87%.