Is The Crypto Bull Market Still There?

Introduction

Since the beginning of 2025, the cryptocurrency market has experienced significant volatility, especially BTC, which fell from a historical high of $109,500 to $80,000 after a 26% retracement, triggering widespread discussion on whether the bull run is still ongoing. This report combines the latest data, expert opinions, and macroeconomic factors to analyze the current market situation and explore possible future directions.

Bitcoin welcomes the biggest pullback of this bull run: dropping more than 26% from $100,000

In April 2025, the Bitcoin market experienced a thrilling roller coaster ride. After falling 26.62% from the year’s high of $109,500, Bitcoin showed astonishing resilience and retested the $80,000 mark.

Although the magnitude of this pullback has raised market concerns, compared to historical cycles, it is still moderate and has not reached extreme levels. For example, in 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin experienced deep retracements of 83% and 73% respectively. Therefore, the current 26.62% decline, while being the deepest pullback of this bull run (since the beginning of 2023), is far from reaching the risk threshold of historical levels.

Many analysts believe that the current market correction is more like a “healthy correction” in the bull market, preparing for the subsequent rise.

The game between technical analysis and on-chain data: $80,000 becomes a key support level

On the technical analysis front, $80,000 has become a key battleground for both longs and shorts. If this level can be held, Bitcoin is expected to open an upward channel towards $120,000 to $150,000. However, on-chain data shows that the cost price of some short-term holders is concentrated around $83,000, which may become a resistance during the upward movement.

It is worth noting that Long-Term Holders (LTH) have shown strong confidence in this pullback and have not seen large-scale selling. This ‘diamond hands’ mentality Bitcoin price Provided strong support. At the same time, the selling pressure of miners is also maintained at a moderate level, without exerting additional pressure on the market.

For example, Messari CEO Eric Turner recently stated at the Paris Blockchain Week that the parabolic trend of Bitcoin and altcoins has not yet begun, and the bull run is expected to arrive in the third or fourth quarter of 2025. He emphasized that the adoption of crypto assets by global banks and institutions will significantly increase in the second half of the year, especially after the improvement of the regulatory environment. He predicted that Q2 might be relatively calm, but Q3 and Q4 will see ‘very interesting’ market dynamics.

The hidden worries of the second half of the bull run: macro black swans and liquidity traps

Despite the continued strength of the Bitcoin bull run in 2025, many opinions point out that investors need to be alert to potential risks. Firstly, from the perspective of the cryptocurrency market itself, Cryptoquant CEO believes that the Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended, and expects the market to show a bearish or sideways trend in the next 6-12 months. He pointed out that on-chain data shows that although funds continue to flow in, prices have not risen accordingly, which is a typical bear market signal. He also mentioned that market liquidity is decreasing, with a lack of new capital inflows, such as BlackRock’s IBIT ETF experiencing outflows for three consecutive weeks.

Furthermore, from a macro perspective, factors such as the escalation of US-China trade friction, capital outflows triggered by the Japanese yen’s interest rate hike, and the increasing probability of a US economic recession may all become triggers for market turbulence. These elements will first affect the stock and bond markets, and the increasingly interconnected crypto market will undoubtedly be impacted.

For example, market analysis firm ecoinometrics warns that when the Nasdaq 100 index is below its long-term annualized average return, the growth of Bitcoin tends to slow down and faces higher Depth pullback risks. Based on historical data, the long-term annualized return of the Nasdaq 100 is about 10.9% (over the past 20 years). The current index below this level indicates that the tech stock market is in a correction phase, which may have a negative impact on the Crypto Assets market.

Furthermore, the ratio of Bitcoin to gold is an important indicator for measuring investors’ preference for digital assets and traditional safe-haven assets. As of the writing date, the price of Bitcoin is around $84,500, and the price of gold is around $3,228.62 per ounce, making the ratio approximately 26.18 (meaning 1 Bitcoin is equivalent to 26.18 ounces of gold). This ratio has decreased compared to last year, indicating that investors may be shifting from Bitcoin to gold as a hedge, entering a bearish phase.

Conclusion

The bull and bear cycle of the crypto asset market is usually associated with the Bitcoin halving event. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024. Historically, a bull run typically follows the halving. Based on historical data, after the halving in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the price of Bitcoin surged to $1,170, $19,870, and $69,000 respectively, one year later.

From this perspective, in the face of a more complex and changing situation, the fluctuation performance of the crypto market in 2025 indicates that this bull run cycle may be adjusting, but in the long term, the market still has the potential for growth.

Risk Warning: Increased global economic uncertainty or tightened regulatory policies may lead to significant fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin. Invest cautiously.