Adam Back:機構建倉比特幣 ETF 需 18 個月,採用速度低於預期

MarketWhisper

Adam Back預測

根據 CoinDesk 於 4 月 29 日發布的專訪報道,Blockstream 執行長 Adam Back 表示,比特幣現貨 ETF 是近期最重要的市場利多訊號,但機構採用速度遠低於預期;他在受訪中估計,從貝萊德(BlackRock)等機構建議配置比特幣至基金經理完成實際建倉,這過程需要一年,甚至長達 18 個月。

Adam Back 對機構資金流入速度的判斷

根據 CoinDesk 報道,Adam Back 在受訪中表示:「我認為人們可能誤判了機構投資者接受這些 ETF 的速度非常慢。所以 ETF 已經被買入,但當貝萊德建議在其股票投資組合中配置 2% 到 4% 的比特幣時,基金經理們還沒有這樣做。他們最終會這樣做,但速度比人們預期的要慢。」

Back 在受訪中進一步說明,目前市場走強正以機構資金流入的形式呈現,包括 ETF 資金流入、主權財富基金、主權債務投資,以及投資者直接購買比特幣或 Strategy(前 MicroStrategy,代碼:MSTR)等比特幣國庫公司股份。他特別提及 Strategy 的 STRC(Stretch 系列永續優先股)在籌資購幣方面取得顯著成效。

根據 CoinDesk 報道,Back 同時表示,以貝萊德、摩根士丹利、富達(Fidelity)為代表的 ETF 提供商,已成為比特幣的新盟友,並有能力超越美國政府的政治更迭。他在受訪中說:「即便政府換屆,『照常營業』的政策仍將繼續,其中一個原因是貝萊德和其他 ETF 提供者現在會捍衛自己的業務。」

四年週期判斷與量子計算風險評估

根據 CoinDesk 報道,Back 就比特幣四年減半週期表示:「即使四年週期被打破,人們預料到這種情況會發生。所以他們拋售,結果就發生了。」他表示,此一邏輯只有在人們觀察到市場走強後才有可能改變。

關於量子計算風險,Back 在受訪中指出,機構投資者在風險管理上更具系統性,著眼於未來十年的尾部風險:「即使存在很小的尾部風險,他們也希望確保這種風險已被規避。」他表示,散戶投資者通常將量子威脅視為遙遠的未來問題,而機構則會具體提問:「這是 1% 的風險嗎?是否有應對措施?」

相關背景

根據 CoinDesk 報道,Adam Back 亦為比特幣資金管理公司 BSTR 的執行長兼聯合創始人,BSTR 計劃透過與 Cantor Equity Partners(CEPO)的特殊目的收購公司(SPAC)合併方式上市。《紐約時報》曾推測 Back 為比特幣匿名創始人中本聰(Satoshi Nakamoto),Back 在此次受訪中對此予以否認。

常見問題

Adam Back 接受 CoinDesk 採訪的時間為何?核心觀點是什麼?

根據 CoinDesk 2026 年 4 月 29 日的報道,Adam Back 表示比特幣現貨 ETF 是近期最重要的市場訊號,但機構建倉過程估計需要 12 至 18 個月,採用速度低於市場普遍預期。

Adam Back 如何評估比特幣的四年週期?

根據 CoinDesk 報道,Back 在受訪中表示,即使四年週期被打破,由於投資者預期並因此拋售,價格下跌仍可能出現;他指出,市場邏輯的改變須建立在觀察到以機構資金流入為基礎的走強之上。

Adam Back 如何評估量子計算對比特幣的風險?

根據 CoinDesk 報道,Back 在受訪中表示,機構投資者會系統性評估量子計算的尾部風險,並要求確認應對措施;散戶投資者則通常將量子威脅視為遙遠未來的問題而較少關注。

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