#美联储回购协议计划 $BTC $ETH Recent market conditions are weak, and there is a fundamental reason behind it: the US Q3 GDP growth rate exploded.

Last night, a major data release came—US Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly rate preliminary figure of 4.3%, far exceeding market expectations of 3.3%. When economic data is strong, the dollar also strengthens, and the market immediately adjusts its expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The probability of maintaining interest rates in January increased from market expectations to 87%, while the chance of rate cuts dropped directly to 13%. Once the news came out, the crypto market immediately came under pressure during trading, and bullish sentiment clearly weakened.

Interestingly, Trump also spoke out, directly stating how urgent his need for rate cuts is, and even hinting that whether the Fed Chair can serve a second term depends on whether they are willing to cooperate with rate cuts. This leaves some room for market imagination, but for now, the market is still being restrained by economic data.

Looking at Bitcoin's candlestick chart, last night was anything but calm. It rebounded from 86,500 in the early morning to 88,400, initially thought to rise further, but was forcibly pushed back to around 87,500 and then started to trade sideways. From the daily chart, the price is being tightly pressed down by the middle band, Bollinger bands are flat, and short-term moving averages lack momentum, showing clear signs of weakness. The four-hour MACD is shrinking in volume and leaning bearish, RSI is still hovering in the oversold area. On the hourly chart, Bollinger bands are very tight, and all moving averages are glued together, essentially locking the market. In the short term, the expectation is for this low-range consolidation, with no significant volatility. To break above, watch 88,400 (four-hour middle band) and 89,500 (daily middle band); support below is at the early morning low of 86,500 and the lower daily band at 85,300.

Ethereum is also having a tough time. After touching 2900 in the early morning and rebounding, the 3000 level has become a ceiling again, now hovering around 2960. The 3050 daily middle band remains the most critical resistance level, and the 3000 integer mark should also be watched, as these two levels will repeatedly compete. Looking downward, 2900 is a short-term support; if it is broken, it could accelerate downward toward the 2850–2800 range, which is the most important support level to defend today.