La reprise du Bitcoin ne parvient pas à stimuler le marché… La majorité anticipe une nouvelle chute à venir

Bitcoin (BTC) price, although up about 13% since early April, has not shown clear signs of ‘euphoria’ among holders and the overall market. Bitcoin analyst Matthew Hyland believes this mild reaction could be a signal of ‘market distrust.’

Hyland stated on the 26th (local time) on X (formerly Twitter): “There doesn’t seem to be much excitement or attention. Many appear to be applying their biases to the outlook.” This suggests that even with the price increase, optimism has not spread.

Market consensus leans toward “another dip before October”

Hyland pointed out: “In the broader trend, the expected outcome seems to be that BTC will experience ‘another leg lower’ before October.” Bitcoin fell to $60,000 in early February, down about 53% from the all-time high of $126,100 reached in October 2025. Nevertheless, several participants believe that ‘cycle lows’ will form around October 2026.

In fact, according to CoinMarketCap data, at the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price was $77,377, about 13% higher than the level of around $68,000 before April 1. At the USD/KRW exchange rate (1 USD = 1477.50 KRW), this is approximately 114.31 million KRW.

Brant and Van de Poppe diverge on timing of lows and rebound sustainability

Senior trader Peter Brandt mentioned on X on the 24th that Bitcoin might form an ‘investable low’ in September-October. However, he did not assert whether this low would break below the February 2026 low, and he has long forecasted a range of $300,000 to $500,000 by September-October 2029.

In contrast, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, stated on the 25th: “There’s no reason to doubt the continuity of the current rebound.” He said, “If the price clearly breaks above $86,000 in the coming months, then the low is likely already in,” implying a higher probability that the bottom has been reached.

“Bottom appears when ‘everyone is convinced,’ not when ‘more drops are expected’”

Hyland interpreted: “Prices are rising, yet bearish forecasts keep appearing, which is a sign of distrust.” This means that in an uptrend, if the market cannot turn optimistic, the ‘trend confirmation’ of the rebound may be delayed, increasing volatility.

On-chain and psychological analysis platform Santiment from a group psychology perspective notes: “The true market bottom almost never occurs when the masses are confidently shouting ‘bottom’.” Santiment states that, generally, “bottoms form when there is consensus that prices will fall sharply,” and offers a cautious view, suggesting that one should not hastily declare a bottom this time either, but observe both psychological and position changes.

Article summary by TokenPost.ai

🔎 Market interpretation - Bitcoin rebounded about +13% from early April, but overall market euphoria signals are weak, interpreted as ‘a phase of rising without trust’ - Despite short-term rebounds, most participants agree that there may be ‘another leg lower before October’ - From a group psychology perspective, bottoms tend to form when ‘everyone is convinced it will get worse,’ not when ‘everyone is sure it’s the bottom,’ thus early assertions of a bottom carry risks 💡 Strategy highlights - Watch price levels: if ‘clearly breaking’ $86,000, the scenario of a bottom (trend reversal) is strongly supported - Scenario branches: (1) sustained rebound (trend strengthening) vs (2) reformation of investable lows in September-October, handling both possibilities is more advantageous - Checklist: whether optimism is spreading (psychological), on-chain/position changes, if key resistance (86,000 USD) fails to break, volatility may increase - Risk management: in ‘distrustful rebounds,’ it’s more suitable to adopt a phased entry, pre-set stop-loss/failure zones rather than chasing the rally 📘 Terminology explanations - euphoria: a state of overheated expectations and surging optimism at the end of a bull market - consensus: the outlook held collectively by most market participants (unified expectation) - another leg lower: continuation of the downtrend, testing lows again with additional decline - investable low: a low point with relatively high potential for subsequent rebound, considered a buying zone from an investment perspective - on-chain: analysis based on blockchain transaction/holding data (wallet movements, trading volume, etc.)

💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q. What does ‘another leg lower before October’ specifically mean? It means that even if there is a short-term rebound, the trend suggests the price could dip again significantly and retest lows. The article explains that some analysts see September-October as a ‘potential further decline zone’ or ‘formation zone of an investable low.’ Q. Why might the price rise but market sentiment not be optimistic (euphoria)? If the market is still influenced by past crashes, distrust the trend, or holds the bias that ‘this rebound is temporary,’ then even with rising prices, sentiment may lag behind. This situation can be viewed as a ‘distrustful rebound,’ with increased volatility possible due to delayed trend confirmation. Q. Should beginners follow the ‘low already in’ view or ‘another dip’ view? Instead of betting on one side, it’s more prudent to respond based on ‘confirmation signals.’ For example, Van de Poppe believes that if the price clearly breaks above $86,000, the low is more likely formed; if the breakout fails, there is room for another correction. In other words, it’s best to combine specific price breakouts/breakdowns, psychological indicators, on-chain data changes, and respond to different scenarios accordingly.

TP AI 注意事项 使用基于TokenPost.ai的语言模型对文章进行了摘要。可能遗漏了正文的重要内容或与事实存在出入。