Citibank : Si la coupure du détroit d'Hormuz dure un mois de plus, le prix du pétrole atteindra 110 dollars

Goldman Sachs reports that on April 21, Citigroup stated that if navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed for another month, oil prices could rise to $110 per barrel.
The company indicated that if this critical shipping route remains blocked over the next four weeks, the global crude oil and refined product inventories lost due to the Iran war could potentially reach 1.3 billion barrels.
The firm said that even if a ceasefire extension agreement is signed this week and the Strait’s navigation, along with oil production, gradually resumes throughout May, the total global crude oil and refined product inventories are still expected to decrease by about 900 million barrels.
This includes the 500 million barrels already lost, as well as an additional 400 million barrels expected to be lost due to production ramp-up delays and conflict-related damages.
Citigroup also stated that if the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted again for two months, it could cause a loss of approximately 1.7 billion barrels and push oil prices up to $130 per barrel.
However, Citigroup predicts that even if the conflict ends this week, global crude oil and fuel inventories will still fall to their lowest levels in eight years by the end of June.
The company said that rebuilding these inventories, even if the market quickly recovers to a daily surplus of 1 million barrels after the conflict ends, could still take more than two years.