Raoul Pal has shared a very interesting analysis of what’s happening in the market in terms of global liquidity and BTC. While many people are frustrated and technical purists say the top has already been reached, he completely disagrees.

The key point is that global liquidity is the most critical macroeconomic factor, with a 90% correlation with BTC since 2012 and 97% with the Nasdaq. The annual growth rate is around 10% and shows no signs of slowing down. This matters because the GMI Financial Conditions anticipates liquidity by about six months and remains loose.

There’s more going on behind the scenes. Tax refunds entering banks’ balance sheets are increasing credit propensity. eSLR—the mechanism by which banks create liquidity through credit and the absorption of government securities—is rising and will keep accelerating. And there’s also the possible approval of the CLARITY law, which would make room for institutions and banks to use crypto technology legally.

In the market itself, stablecoins are accelerating quite a lot. Issuance grew 50% last year and continues to rise. Trading volume has already surpassed trillions of dollars. Support from the U.S. government for cryptocurrencies has reached the highest level in history.

Now, the technical indicators are extremely stretched. According to most metrics, the market is in a state of panic and historically overbought. The weekly DeMark should provide very solid support over the next two weeks. The daily DeMark is also overlapping. Any weakness that appears from here onward completes the daily and weekly signals, opening up potential for a significant reversal.

The real risk is if oil prices stay at elevated levels for a long time. The next two weeks are critical to keep an eye on. Raoul believes these factors will lead to positive results and expects more upside ahead. With BTC trading at $77.14K and liquidity accelerating, the scenario looks favorable for those watching closely.