Recent conversations with several trading partners have given me a feeling: it seems like the rules are reversed. Novice accounts are skyrocketing, while long-term stable ones remain silent; concept stocks are bloodily washing out fundamental players; new investors are advising veteran traders on how to operate.

Carefully examining the recent surging targets, there are only two types of pushers behind them. One is the precise operation of capital teams, and the other is retail investors following the trend to chase gains. This instead indicates that market liquidity is truly sufficient, and the profit-making effect is very strong. But among my friends with stable returns over the years, either they are not interested in this wave of concepts, or even if they participate, they are just testing the waters, with very restrained positions. Conversely, those with boldness and strong execution are indeed making big profits.

However, there is a watershed to be cautious of. Talking about grand logic and drawing long-term value blueprints at high levels is often a sign that losses are beginning. Trading concepts themselves is not shameful— as long as you can make money, the method is good. The key is not to romanticize short-term probability games into long-term value investing, because in the end, the one who suffers is oneself.

I'm not saying this without holding positions to watch the show. On the contrary, at the beginning of this year, during these few trading days, my earnings have set personal records because I only make money within my cognitive scope. That is the most important—finding your own rhythm and operating within your circle of competence.

Ultimately, trading has never been a gambler’s game; it is a battlefield for long-termists. Speed and boldness can earn quick gains, but those who truly last rely on honesty about their own cognitive boundaries.