ارتفاع شهية المخاطرة في وول ستريت، وتغير توقعات خفض الفائدة في الاحتياطي الفيدرالي — استعراض كامل لبيانات الاقتصاد واتجاهات السياسات للأسبوع القادم

【Block Rhythm】Entering the first complete trading week of 2026, global assets are rising in lockstep, and Wall Street’s risk appetite has clearly recovered. This week, the S&P 500 index rose 1.6%, while the Russell 2000 index for small-cap stocks surged even more dramatically at 4.6%. Even more striking is the passive fund phenomenon — Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) absorbed $10 billion in just a few days, a flow rate rarely seen for passive funds. This pace at the start of the year suggests the year could have a strong beginning.

However, in the coming week, several key data points need close monitoring. Tuesday at 21:30, the US will release December unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate, seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate, and unadjusted core CPI year-over-year rate. Wednesday at 21:30 as well, November retail sales monthly rate, PPI year-over-year/monthly rates, and Q3 current account data will be released sequentially. Thursday at 21:30 more hard data continues — initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, January New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indices, and November import price index monthly rate.

What deserves even more attention is the shift in the Fed’s stance. Next week, Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively, with a key signal being: before the current chair’s successor formally takes office, the Fed will likely not cut rates again. Bank of America’s Global Research strategy team explicitly stated that last week’s data reinforced this judgment. This suggests the rate-cutting window may be narrowing.

Additionally, geopolitical factors should not be ignored. US Secretary of State Rubio plans to meet with Danish and Greenland officials next week, and these diplomatic moves could trigger market ripples. Meanwhile, Iran’s situation — turmoil caused by anti-government demonstrations including in the capital Tehran — could also impact global risk sentiment in the near term. Viewed comprehensively, next week will face both the testing role of economic data and the uncertainty of policy and geopolitical factors, with markets likely facing more challenges ahead.