WaterExpoChaos
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Age 1 Year
Peak Tier 0
Former research dog in science and technology → now a full-time contract hunter, I have deconstructed 90% of the trading theories on the market using a research mindset, ultimately creating a system that integrates institutional money + order flow... Daily musings on market data highlights, focusing mainly on the European and American markets.
The weekend continues to move sideways..
Finally managed to fill in the trades for this range that has been swept through N times..
Will take a closer look at the recent URPD late at night..
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Since #btc has started to fluctuate, let's take a look at the potential intraday zones to watch today..
Below, there are two zones where previous short positions were trapped: 92k~92.5k in Chart 1 and around 91k in Chart 2..
Chart 3 shows the position of these two zones in the larger picture..
However, there are currently 100+ btc pending orders stacked around 91,600 (Chart 4)..
So, it may not be easy for the price to reach 91k in the near term..
Therefore, before and after the US stock market opens today, keep an eye on the 92k area, plus or minus 500 points.. Wait for a high-volume entry set
BTC1.98%
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Looking at today's #btc options gamma, we are still in the positive gamma zone, so option sellers' hedging reduces volatility...
(If the price rises, they sell; if the price falls, they buy.)
So the current sideways consolidation is also one of the manifestations of being in a strong positive gamma zone...
(We are still only looking at the 1d, 8d, and 22d options with relatively large open interest—December 5th, 12th, and 26th, the "giants.")
Therefore, unless there is a strong bullish or bearish news catalyst, we should continue to see situations where price pulls back as soon as it encounter
BTC1.98%
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#BTC price is holding steady, but the order book tells you that the selling pressure above is being eaten away bit by bit, and the balance of power between bulls and bears is being redistributed...
From yesterday to today, the biggest change in the order book is that the imbalance of sell orders above has temporarily disappeared. The disappearance of the imbalance doesn’t mean the sell orders are gone, it just means that buy and sell orders are currently in a relatively balanced state.
Within a 2.5% or even 5% range above and below the current price, the number of buy and sell orders is not mu
BTC1.98%
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December 3 news: US November ADP employment decreased by 32,000, the lowest level since March 2023, while market expectations were for an increase of 10,000.
Employment remains weak, which is favorable for a rate cut in December. After the news, Polymarket's probability of a December rate cut rose to 95%, while on Fedwatch it's currently at 89.5%.
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Total delta 1.5b+1.92b...
This is a signal for the reversal of the funding sentiment trend that I have been talking about before..
It's best not to be empty today; it's hard to touch where the reversal point of this wave is...
I'm outside right now, let's talk more later when I have time..
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US President Trump: He will announce the new Fed chairman at the beginning of next year, and Bessent does not want the job at the Fed.
It seems it won't affect the December Fed meeting...
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Is this gap not going to be filled? 😅 It's the third time in a row that there's just a gap left to cross over...
Are you really not going to make up for it?
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#BTC Observations before the US stock market opens..
Overall, the rebound sentiment yesterday was quite strong, although it did not create a rapid V-shaped recovery..
However, yesterday, the total long delta reached 1.5b in just a few hours, which is the highest value of total long delta for the entire network's spot and contract aggregation in the last 5 hours since October 11. (Previously, the highest rebound was only around 1~1.2b, with an occasional 1.4b.)
What is different this time is that after this wave of rebound to 1.5b, the price did not fall back, but instead went sideways. In
BTC1.98%
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The reason for MicroStrategy's stock price big dump last week has been found: was it caused by the boss himself?
How much will BTC fall before MicroStrategy truly collapses? Not 70,000, but 10,000? What is the likelihood of them selling coins in the near future? How will they maintain their cash flow in the future?
Deep dive into where the death spiral trigger line of MSTR really is!
In the past two days, discussions have increased regarding whether MicroStrategy @Strategy will experience a big dump in the future and whether it will trigger a spiral risk.
Yesterday, MicroStrategy announced
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#BTC long positions 1.5b's delta has been completed..... The rebound strength is very limited.
(There should be significant passive selling pressure, so the price has not rebounded much)
According to Delta, this rebound is just like this..
After all, since 10.11, long positions have hardly made a single wave exceeding 1.5b...
BTC1.98%
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Today, the key focus for #BTC is still the 1-2 hours after the opening of the US stock market...
See if there is a chance to break 85k and accelerate into the 82~83k demand zone to hit the previous low sfp...
Look up to 87~88k (a small amount of long positions trapped) whether it can go through.. (Figure two)
BTC1.98%
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