Previously, I thought many people in the crypto space lacked proper technical analysis skills. Later, I realized—they simply treat this as a pure gamble.

Some time ago, I said that #加密领域市场回调 could reach $20 within a year, with a seven-year target of $200. This represents the top-tier players in the DEX field, comparable to the leading exchange platform tokens.

Then the comment section exploded.
All the skepticism followed the same logic: with a total supply of 8 billion tokens, and a current market cap close to $9 billion, a 20x increase would be $180 billion, and a 200x increase would directly reach $1.8 trillion. If it hits $20, it would surpass the market cap of some major exchange platform tokens; at $200, it could even catch up with Bitcoin. Where does $ASTER get the confidence?

Honestly, these people are good at reading candlestick charts, and their math checks out.

The problem is—they haven't thoroughly studied the token's underlying mechanism.

Since the S2 phase, the project team has initiated a continuous buyback program. They buy back over 1 million tokens daily on average, meaning at least 30 million tokens are bought back each month. At this pace, conservatively, they will have bought back over 300 million tokens in 10 months.

More importantly, starting from the S3 phase, there's a burn mechanism—50% of the buyback volume is directly burned. This means that by the end of the airdrop, at least 1.5 billion tokens will have been burned. Note that this is a conservative estimate; the actual burn amount could be much higher.

There's also a overlooked detail: to be eligible for the airdrop, holders need to maintain large positions. Those qualified are essentially long-term, committed holders.

This project is undoubtedly a top contender in the DEX sector. The behind-the-scenes operator is CZ, with a complete set of buyback, burn, and deflation mechanisms.

Initially, I estimated $ASTER could reach around $50, based on its current level. I thought the burn mechanism would only activate after the airdrop, with "trading burns" coming later once the ecosystem matures.

But I didn't expect the burn to be so aggressive—S3 already started, and I expect the burn mechanism to ramp up after S12.

If this burn rate continues, ultimately, about 90% of the circulating supply could be destroyed, leaving only 800 million tokens. Multiplying 800 million by $200 gives a market cap of $160 billion—this logical chain makes perfect sense.

The market often focuses only on the current circulating supply, ignoring how the deflationary mechanism fundamentally reshapes supply and demand dynamics.