Today's encryption market analysis and outlook ( 2023.06.19 )

Market Highlights Analysis:

1. 黄金价格可能已见阶段性顶部,主要受中心减缓购金速和市场避险情绪下降影响
2. The long-term bearish strategy for gold is worth paying attention to, and it is recommended to keep an eye on the timing and methods of operation.
3. Recent developments in the aluminum market are worth close attention from investors.
4. The net issuance of medium- to long-term bonds as a proportion of the fiscal deficit is correlated with the performance of the US stock market.
5. 美stock 维持高位横盘状态,并非真正的强势表现
6. The discounts for the 618 shopping festival did not meet expectations. Should the market expectations be adjusted?
7. 从技术面、周期性和基本面三个维度分析,当前市场环境不支持加密货币进入主要上升趋势
8. Even if there is no significant adjustment in June, a notable pullback may still occur in July, but there is still enough time window for the main upward trend to form.
9. It is still highly likely that Solana will perform better than Bitcoin in the second half of 2023.

Trading Suggestions:

Short-term strategy:
The market is currently hovering around the lower edge of a triangular convergence range. Although it is not advisable to short at the support level, the probability of breaking below the support is relatively high due to the prolonged stay in this area, and the risk for long positions is also significant. It is recommended to hold existing short positions.

If Bitcoin rebounds to around $106,500, you can increase your short position, with a target price of $94,000.
If Ethereum rebounds to the $2,620 area, short positions can be increased, with a target price of $2,150;
The current resistance level for Solana is quite far, and it is not recommended to increase positions at this time, with a target price maintained at 130 dollars.

Mid-term strategy:
Continue to hold short positions, Bitcoin is expected to at least pull back to around the daily MA250, and over time this position will move up to about $93,000. Ethereum and Solana will adjust in sync, with target prices around $2,150 and $130, respectively.

For spot investors, they can gradually buy small amounts when Bitcoin drops below $94,000. Contract traders need to be more precise in grasping the entry points.

Long-term strategy:
Buy spot at the daily MA250 position, while allocating a 1% fund for a 100x coin-based long position; allocate another 1% fund for a 100x coin-based long position at the EMA250 position; and allocate another 1% fund for a 100x coin-based long position at the MA350.

Do not set a take profit for long positions for now; manually cut losses when the weekly candlestick breaks below the weekly MA/EMA60.

Spot allocation suggestion: Bitcoin 60%, Solana 20%, other encryption assets 20%

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